| JAN 2004
The 40-Week Cycle In The Stock Market by Jay Kaeppel
The 40-Week Cycle In The Stock Market by Jay Kaeppel Is the market truly random? Some phenomena related to the stock market would not be expected to exist if the market truly were random. There has been much debate in the investment community regarding the existence of cycles in the markets. Some claim that cosmic forces (a full moon, for instance, or other celestial events) can cause the overall mood of investors to swing from high to low, often on a predictable and repetitive basis. On the other end of the spectrum are those who dismiss such notions as hogwash. Most investor opinions fall somewhere in between — not entirely sold on the idea, but still willing to keep an open mind. DO CYCLES EXIST? In this article we will discuss the 40-week cycle in the stock market. This information is not presented as proof positive that cycles exist, but simply to make the point that there are phenomena related to the stock market that would not be expected to exist if the market were truly random. Our analysis of the 40-week cycle starts on May 15, 1970, and makes the assumption that a new 40-week cycle starts on this date and a new 40-week cycle starts every 280 calendar days after that. The hypothesis is that the first 20 weeks of a new cycle represent the bullish phase of the cycle and that the last 20 weeks of each cycle represent the bearish phase of the cycle.
by Jay Kaeppel
Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES
The Traders’ Magazine since 1982
has had over 1,226,237 subscribers from 174 different countries.
37,000 Page Traders’ Archive for $89.99
To continue reading, sign-up for trial access to Traders.com and the S&C Archive — 37,000 pages of trading ideas!
After verifying your email address, you will have limited access to the S&C Archive, as well as access to a Digital Edition of S&C, and access to Traders.com Advantage and Working Money for 30 days.
Not a subscriber to Technical Analysis of
STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine?
Click
here to subscribe, or request
a trial subscription.
Log-in now to view articles from the S&C Archive.
Your Subscriber ID is located at the top of your magazine label, highlighted here in red.
Your last name can be found on the second line, highlighted here in blue.
*If you have a company name on the label, that can also be used. It will appear below your name on the label.
If you do not have a Subscriber ID on your label, you can find it on your statement or renewal form.
For help locating your Subscriber ID number, please call us at 1-800-832-4642 or send an email to Survey@Traders.com. If sending an email, please include your name and mailing address.