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System Design | NOV 2003
Casino Trading by Phil Abel
Casino Trading by Phil Abel The Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical technique used to model the expected outcomes of a random series of events such as a casino game, also has valuable applications in the evaluation of a systematic trading program. When you think of a successful trader, what comes to mind? Chances are you conjure up the image of a financial sage like Warren Buffett or George Soros, someone who can seemingly gaze into a crystal ball and pick out a winner. Or maybe you picture a commodity pit trader, hardened and wizened from days spent in battle on the exchange floor. Now what if I told you a successful trader might have the most in common with a casino manager? How can the proud and noble trader possibly lower his self-image to equate it with that of a gambling house? Indeed, the word gambling has a most negative reputation.
by Phil Abel
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