Cycles  |  SEP 2002

Riding The Kondratieff Wave by Tim Elrod

Riding The Kondratieff Wave by Tim Elrod Here’s a glance at an often overlooked cycle theory. I first found out about Kondratieff’s long wave theory in college. I was sitting in a library courtyard at University of California (Berkeley), and it occurred to me that there was as much mysticism and wonder in business as there was in religion or philosophy. I also concluded that the foundation of economics was suspect, a relic of the caretaker class of journalists, academics, and government bureaucrats. Maybe supply and demand worked randomly in the short term but to really see the market, explain it, and forecast it, it occurred to me that price needed to be looked at purely as a function of time. This, I realized, is the foundation of wave economics.

by Tim Elrod