Trading Techniques  |  JUN 1997

Lunar Cycles and Trading by J. O Katz, Ph.D.

Lunar Cycles and Trading by J. O Katz, Ph.D. This month, this Contributing Writer looks at using lunar cycles as the basis of a trading system. In my previous two articles, I focused on cycles — rhythmic oscillations that occur with a certain periodicity or frequency. Initially, I explored seasonal cycles, which I defined as recurrent phenomena consistently connected to the calendar, and found that fairly good predictions could be made on the basis of historical market behaviors linked to specific dates as well as times of the year. Then I attempted to find cycles that, unlike seasonal influences, were not overtly related to any other kind of phenomena but were merely recurrent rhythms or oscillations in the market; while performance across samples and markets was somewhat mixed, the filter bank method I developed for testing this hypothesis appeared to exhibit some potential as the basis for an effective trading strategy based on cycles. This time, I will return to analyzing the cyclic market behavior determined by underlying forces. Specifically, I will examine the relationship between market behavior and lunar rhythms. As before, my goal is to find useful knowledge to cast into rule templates and add to the template pool from which to create optimal combinations and parameters for successful trading systems.

by J. O Katz, Ph.D.