|  DEC 1994

Seasonal Tendencies For Range Expansion by K.D. Angle

Seasonal Tendencies For Range Expansion by K.D. Angle This STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor identifies the seasonal tendency of the commodity markets on a monthly basis and then compares the commodity market performance to a commodity fund manager's performance index. Is there any way to determine if there is an ideal time to start a trading program? The quick answer is no. Chance plays a much greater role in the near term and is a much smaller factor in the long term. But because it is impossible to predict what the markets will do in the future, it is also impossible to establish a trading rule or policy that best determines when performance will be up or down. This one question has remained unanswered through the years. However, when I became interested in volatility in the early 1980s, I noticed that profitability was directly linked to range expansion. I quickly learned that without range expansion, there are no trends of significant degree. Becoming curious, I began keeping data on individual market volatility and range expansion for all futures markets as an aggregate statistic.

by K.D. Angle