|  MAR 1992

The Presidential Election Cycle by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

The Presidential Election Cycle by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. It's an election year again. What does history say about them ? This famous technician tells you that what you've heard about Presidential election years may very well be true. An election year is in progress. What are the prospects for the markets? We've been told that traditionally, politicians try to do everything they can to make the years with Presidential elections scheduled good ones in the market to put voters in a positive frame of mind. Does history confirm this truism? To check this out, I asked my computer to calculate the percent changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) every month since 1898. Then I averaged these changes in each month of the four year Presidential cycle. We started on the December 1 after a Presidential election and then cumulated the percent changes up through the next Presidential election year. Figure 1 shows the results.

by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.