|  OCT 1990

Negative Volume Divergence Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

Negative Volume Divergence Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. The Market Technicians Association has selected the late Paul Dysart for their 1990 annual award ""for outstanding contribution to the field for technical analysis."" Analyst Jim Alphier, in a report supporting the award, wrote: ""The jewel in the crown of Dysart's indicators was his Negative Volume Index. It was largely—but by no means exclusively—his interpretation of this statistical series [that] allowed him to compile his unheard-of forecasting record between 1946 and 1967."" Dysart called the indicator AMOMET (""a measure of major economic trend""). Between 1946 and 1960 his interpretation of this index gave 17 significant signals, of which 13 were correct. The Market Logic organization found that over the past 50 years, when the indicator was above its 50-week average, there was a 96% chance that a bull market was in progress. However, in January 1969, the year of his death, Dysart demoted the index. It had been giving false signals, and so he reduced its weight in his group of indicators. The index is an advance-decline cumulation, but it uses only those days with declining volume. On a day when volume is less than l that of the preceding day, declines are subtracted from advances and the result is added to the preceding cumulation. Dysart theorized that professionals prefer to do their buying and selling on quiet days, while the public moves in with emotion and enthusiasm on active days.

by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.