|  MAY 1990

Elliott wave: Fact or fiction? by F. David Minbashian

Elliott wave: Fact or fiction? by F. David Minbashian Using concepts from the elegant new science of chaotic dynamics, I was writing an essay to show as simply as I could arguing how commodity and stock prices follow a path of motion without any patterns. As I arrived at my conclusion, I could almost hear the hue and cry of disagreement from avid followers of R. N. Elliott only too eager to show me the vast profits they have amassed using his theory, for the Elliott wave principle is nothing if not a grand pattern by which prices are supposed to unfold. If you are one of those followers, don't stop reading yet. I do have something positive to say about your theory. A few years ago I embarked on the task of learning the theory. There was no denying the fact that you could see and count the waves in chart after chart. I was so taken by the idea that I went around saying, ""How do I love thee? Let me count the waves."" When it came to applying my newly acquired skills, things did not turn out as well. At first, I thought it was my lack of experience. Wrong or right, though, it was a lot of fun trying. I looked forward to following prices to see what kind of count would emerge. Was a 3 of 3 beginning or was it the ""x"" in an abc-x-abc formation? It got so bad that I had to warn myself and others against ""the disease of the wave count"" where nothing matters but to carry a count to its conclusion.

by F. David Minbashian