|  APR 1990

Predicting market order with the Delta phenomenon by J. Welles Wilder

Predicting market order with the Delta phenomenon by J. Welles Wilder Does each market have an underlying order that makes it predictable? The answer is yes. That order makes a riskless trading strategy possible. The Delta phenomenon shows the underlying order of the market, and zero-coupon government bonds are the vehicles to buy and sell to take advantage of the predictable sequences. You can't lose because even if you bought the bonds at their exact 30-year high, you can hold them to maturity and collect about 10% interest on your money. What is the Delta phenomenon? Every freely traded market has its own particular order, which can be calculated as far in the past or as far in the future as you may want to go. This order, which I call Delta, is relative only to time. Delta dates predict when the market highs and lows will occur, but it cannot predict how high or how low the market will be at these turning points. The Delta order is applicable in five different time frames. For example, the shortest timeframe predicts, on average, two turning points per day. The longest time frame predicts, on average, about one turning point per year. As for strategy, sometime during the month that an arrow points upward, I buy, and sometime during the month that an arrow points downward, I sell.

by J. Welles Wilder