|  NOV 1989

Inside day patterns in the S&P by Toby Crabel

Inside day patterns in the S&P by Toby Crabel Computer studies suggest that inside days— where the high is lower than the previous ! day's high and the low is higher than the previous day's low— provide very reliable t entries in the S&P 500 futures market. The basic trading pattern (Figure 1) is an inside day (ID) followed by a sale if the next day's market opens lower or a buy if next day's market opens higher. Entry is on the open and exit is on the same day's close without a stop. In computerized tests, this basic procedure produced 68% winning trades in the S&P between 1982 and 1987. Total net profit from these trades was $18,000 after an $18-per-trade commission. This is a reasonably high percentage and suggests a strong tendency or bias for prices to continue in the direction of the open the day after any inside day. Refinements One simple variation of this pattern—discerning | whether the ID close and next day's open are in the same direction—produces an even higher percentage of winning trades. In Figure 2a, the ID has a higher close than the previous day and is followed by a higher open. A buy is taken on the open and exited on the close. A sale is taken when the ID has a lower close and is followed by a lower open (Figure 2b).

by Toby Crabel