|  OCT 1989

Constructing an efficient short-term timing model by Marcus S. Robinson

Constructing an efficient short-term timing model by Marcus S. Robinson You can use two sets of ratios to forecast short-and intermediate-term turning points in stocks and commodities . In my trading, I look for these ""change in trend"" (CIT) days using simple ratios rather than elaborate charting. The first set of ratios I use is called the Golden Section ratios and the second set is called the Square of the Range. I'll show you how I use the exact numbers and you can learn more about them through the references listed at the end of the article. The first thing is to determine the last intermediate high and low, based on your timeframe. The time between these two dates will be the ""range"" of time for predictions. For example, July soybeans peaked on June 23, 1988 and bottomed 105 market days later (Figure 1).Now, multiply 105 by the ""Golden Ratio"" numbers: 1.0,0.892,0.618,0.55 and 0.382. The product of these calculations will be the number of days to add to the low, producing a number of calendar dates on which turns might be expected (Figure 2).

by Marcus S. Robinson