|  OCT 1988

The 40.68-month stock price cycle by Gertrude Shirk

The 40.68-month stock price cycle by Gertrude Shirk Of the thousands of possible rhythmic cycles in hundreds of subjects that the Foundation for the Study of Cycles has studied over the years, one we have reported on repeatedly since November 1951 is the 40.68-month cycle in stock prices. Cycle analysts were aware of a rhythm in stock market averages of about 40 to 41 months (from crest to crest) for many, many years. Over a long period of time, this cycle was dominant enough to be visible by inspection of the data, before trend removal or any other manipulation came into use. The Foundation has tracked the history of this cycle since it was first defined, whether or not the market matched the ideal model. The Foundation does not forecast stock prices based on our research, but we constantly bring any cycle up-to-date because an important part of our evaluation of the reality and significance of the cycle is the degree to which it continues after it is found and defined. There is no standard test that I know of by which the statistical significance of the continuation after discovery can be measured. But it is certainly common sense to attach a high degree of significance to a cycle which continues to follow the extension of the average pattern of the past.

by Gertrude Shirk