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| OCT 1987
Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D.
Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D. I believe there are some major flaws in the statistical reasoning in Curtis McKallip's article ""Investigating Chart Patterns Using Markov Analysis"" (STOCKS & COMMODITIES December 1986). Using the raw numbers from his transition matrix, I believe that the observed probabilities for the pairs of states should be as follows: p1,1 = 58/309 = 0.1877; p1,2 = 15/309 = 0.0485. Thus the probability of a 1, 2 or 3 is 78/309 = 0.2524; 139/309 = 0.4498 and 92/309 = 0.2977, respectively. If we assume independence, the probability of a 1,1 is equal to p1 times p1 or 0.2524 times 0.2524 = 0.0637.
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