| APR 1986
Detecting a dependent process by Clifford J. Sherry Ph.D.
Detecting a dependent process by Clifford J. Sherry Ph.D. If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict what the price will be tomorrow? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease? Dr. Sherry proposes a statistical method that allows you to determine which prices are random and/or independent. If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict what the price will be tomorrow? A week from tomorrow? A month? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease? By how much? The answer to these questions depends on who you ask. Some people, like technical analysts, believe that you can. Others do not. One reason why this question is so difficult to answer is that there is no general agreement about how commodity prices are generated. If the underlying process is random and/or independent, then you probably cannot 'predict' price movement. But, if this is not true, if it is either non-random and/or dependent, then some 'pattern' exists in commodity prices. With the appropriate tools, you should be able to detect the pattern and use this information in your decisions about the market. It is important to realize that randomness and independence are separate and distinct characteristics. For example, it is possible for a process to be random and dependent, non-random and independent, etc.
by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES
The Traders’ Magazine since 1982
has had over 1,226,237 subscribers from 174 different countries.
37,000 Page Traders’ Archive for $89.99
To continue reading, sign-up for trial access to Traders.com and the S&C Archive — 37,000 pages of trading ideas!
After verifying your email address, you will have limited access to the S&C Archive, as well as access to a Digital Edition of S&C, and access to Traders.com Advantage and Working Money for 30 days.
Not a subscriber to Technical Analysis of
STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine?
Click
here to subscribe, or request
a trial subscription.
Log-in now to view articles from the S&C Archive.
Your Subscriber ID is located at the top of your magazine label, highlighted here in red.
Your last name can be found on the second line, highlighted here in blue.
*If you have a company name on the label, that can also be used. It will appear below your name on the label.
If you do not have a Subscriber ID on your label, you can find it on your statement or renewal form.
For help locating your Subscriber ID number, please call us at 1-800-832-4642 or send an email to Survey@Traders.com. If sending an email, please include your name and mailing address.