|  OCT 1982

Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.

Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D. Back in December 1981, J. Louis Anon wrote an article in Commodities called ""Catch Short Term Profits using ARIMA'' and touched off a minor revolution in forecasting commodity and stock option prices with his claims that ARIMA could forecast prices within 1.5 percent. I had written an ARIMA package for statisticians who have an Apple II (or III), which was the only one for a microcomputer. Anon learned of this and referred customers who did not want to use a large mainframe computer (such as the one you can buy time on from his employer, Chase Econometrics) to me. Talking with potential customers, it became clear that the Anon article failed to answer many of their questions. It also became obvious that the original package had to be modified for traders to be able to use easily.

by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.